How Did the Atlanta Braves Jumpstart their World Series Run?

By James Carney

The 2021 Atlanta Braves did not get off to a very impressive or memorable start to their season. They hovered around .500 throughout the majority of the first half and on June 30th sat at fourth in the NL East with a 37-41 record, and a 15% chance to make the playoffs. The Braves’ postseason prospects for 2021 got even worse when, on July 10, their star right fielder Ronald Acuña Jr tore his ACL and was ruled out for the season. Before his injury, Acuña was slashing .283/.394/.596^[1] with a 155 OPS+^[2] as a prime MVP candidate, and the floundering Braves without their superstar seemed destined for a disappointing finish to 2021. Yet, in November, the Braves were the team hoisting the championship trophy as the World Champions. What mid-season changes did the Braves make to execute this impressive turnaround?

2021 MLB Offseason Breakdown

By: Romeo Wada

The 2020-2021 off season for Major League Baseball progressed as slowly as any offseason we have seen. Combine the COVID-driven caution many teams have for signing players who hit the free agent market in their mid-30s, many big leaguers were left unsigned until Mid-January and February. Nonetheless, all 30 clubs made their moves, big and small, and here we look at the teams who had the best offseasons as well as other teams who made intriguing moves.

Trevor Bauer 2020 NL Cy Young

By: Tyler Gorecki

Despite his 5-4 record, Trevor Bauer is the obvious choice for the 2020 National League Cy Young Award winner. However, W-L records are no longer as relevant, as seen when Jacob deGrom won the National League Cy Young Award in 2018 and 2019 with a 10-9 and 11-8 record respectively. Along with that, Bauer’s team, the Cincinnati Reds, had the lowest team batting average (.212) during the regular season since 1910 and the 2nd lowest ever.        

Shane Bieber 2020 AL MVP

By: James Carney

Shane Bieber’s 2020 season was historically impressive and dominant. Bieber, the ace for the AL Central champion Cleveland Indians, won the American League pitching triple crown, leading all pitchers in ERA (1.63), Wins, (8), and Strikeouts (122). He also led all AL pitchers in several more advanced statistics, including H/9 (5.35), FIP (2.07), Adjusted ERA+ (281), and WPA (3.0). He also led all American League players with a WAR of 3.2. Bieber’s performance and 8-1 record become even more impressive when compared to the poor state of the Indians’ offense, who finished bottom-five in the MLB in both OPS and runs scored. 

Blake Snell 2018 vs 2019: Reasons Behind his Increased ERA

By: Douglas Young

In 2018, Blake Snell put together a historic season. He was the CY Young winner where he posted a 1.89 ERA. Snell did not have the same success in 2019, succumbing to a 4.29 ERA. His FIP, xFIP, and SIERRA stats suggest he was a slightly worse pitcher between 2018 and 2019, however, they do not suggest a 2.40 difference in ERA. When equating the advanced stats to his ERA, they suggest Snell was lucky in 2018 and unlucky in 2019 (See figure 1). Undeniably, luck was a factor, however, it does not tell the whole story as evidenced by his poor pitching with runners in scoring position.

(Figure 1, FanGraphs)

In 2018, Snell was extremely tough to score on. He led the league by 2.7% in LOB% with a LOB% of 88%. The next year, his LOB% of 71.6 was around the league average – far from the MLB’s best. FIP, xFIP nor SIERRA weigh situations where pitchers have runners on base. This explains why Snell’s ERA changed so drastically leaving his advanced stats somewhat constant.

Industry standard does not believe in clutch players, and thinks that LOB% is a measure of luck. Blake Snell is the exception – his LOB% is not a result of luck. The difference in his walk rate between low-medium leverage situations and high leverage situations is statistically significant at the .025 level with a t-score of 2.16. Snell is walking more batters during the games most decisive moments, that compounds his problems. His declining pitching performance looks like a control problem as his HR rate also spikes during high leverage situations with a t-score of 1.55. While it is not statistically significant at the level .025 it should not be discounted completely. He is either missing the zone completely or missing his spots and giving up more homeruns. This is in stark contrast to his 2018 campaign. In 41 TBF in high leverage situations, he only gave up three walks and one homerun. A pitcher’s ability to manage high leverage situations are key for limiting runs. Snell did not manage high leverage situations well in 2019 and almost 20% of the runs he allowed were during these situations.

(Figure 2, FanGraphs)

From looking at just the advanced stats, many would believe Snell’s deteriorated ERA was from misfortune. Bad luck is undeniably true, however, there were additional factors at play that cannot be discounted. Snell’s 2.40 difference in ERA can be explained from his poor performance in high leverage situations, slightly worse performance overall (shown by his advanced stats), and a swing in luck. His poor performance in high leverage situations exemplifies one variable in a larger equation which should not be overlooked.

 

NL MVP Race 2019: Cody Bellinger

By: Tim Sever

The Los Angeles Dodgers put together another astounding season in 2019, capturing their seventh straight National League West division title, while ultimately falling short in the playoffs. With a combination of young potential and veteran leadership, Los Angeles is one of the best-positioned teams in the Major Leagues to contend for titles in the future. No player better exemplifies this promising present and future than star outfielder Cody Bellinger. He has been nothing short of stellar thus far into his career, and if this year is any indication, he will be a premier player in this league for a long time.

NL MVP Race 2019: Christian Yelich

By: Romeo Wada

Since being traded to the Milwaukee Brewers, Christian Yelich has emerged from being a consistent hitter to being one of baseball’s top stars.  Coming off a historical career year in 2018, Yelich picked up right where he left off, putting together another remarkable season. Despite a September 10^th injury sidelining him for the end of the season, Yelich has still put together a strong case for another MVP award.

NL MVP Race 2019: Anthony Rendon

By: Kathleen Boyce

For the majority of the season, the NL MVP race has been between Christian Yelich and Cody Bellinger. On July 8th, MLB released a commercial called “Belli vs. Yeli: A game of M-V-P (Cody Bellinger vs. Christian Yelich!)” with the two players playing a game of PIG, but with letters M,V, and P. However, while the MLB made the NL MVP race out to be a two-horse race, another player put together an MVP caliber season and catapulted himself into the discussion.

Anthony Rendon used to fly under the radar when it came to the recognition of his talent, but his impressive statistics and World Series win has changed this and he is now regarded as one of the best hitters in baseball. He helped pull the Nationals out of a huge regular-season hole and through the playoffs with a dominant season at the plate and in the field, and he deserves to take home the NL MVP award.

AL Cy Young Race 2019: Charlie Morton

By: Charlie Silkin

Coming off a World Series title and 2 ALCS appearances with the Astros, Charlie Morton took his talents to Tropicana Field, signing a 2 yr./$30M deal with the Tampa Bay Rays during the 2019 offseason. Given the fact that the Rays were on a tight budget and had to compete with the Yankees and Red Sox in the division, they needed a difference-maker, and Morton was the pitcher of choice.

Besides the Rays’ unusual splurging, there were 2 other reasons why this move could be considered a surprise: First of all, Charlie Morton was 35 years old when he signed and with the recent exceptions of Justin Verlander and Max Scherzer, pitchers tend to be less effective as Father Time takes its hold. Secondly, prior to his two-year tenure with the Houston Astros, Charlie Morton had only one season (2013) where he was an above-average pitcher, and then again, he was barely above-average with a 109 ERA+ (he was only 9% better than the average pitcher).

Nevertheless, Morton did experience a resurgence when he signed with the Houston Astros prior to the 2017 season, which is no surprise considering Houston is one of the best teams at analytically improving starting pitchers. Of course, Tampa Bay is a heavily analytically-driven club as well, so one could argue that Morton was put in a good position to succeed despite leaving the Astros.

As for the question of “Why Morton?”, under-the-radar, Morton is actually one of the most clutch pitchers in baseball. Prior to the 2019 season, Morton was 2-0 in playoff elimination games, with wins in Game 7 of the 2017 ALCS and Game 7 of the 2017 World Series. His clutch ways would continue throughout the 2019 season, as he was 5^th in the AL in Win-Probability Added (WPA) and 3^rd in the AL in +WPA₁; it’s no wonder he was selected to start the AL Wild Card game for the Rays (which he would also win). Needing someone to get them over the hump, the Rays chose Morton, and it’s safe to say that their investment paid off greatly, as he was one of the best and most valuable starting pitchers in all of MLB this past season and as a result, he should be considered as the top candidate for the AL Cy Young award this season.

Even after being effective for the Astros, Morton had a breakout year with the Rays. He ranked in the top 10 in the American League in most statistical categories among qualified starters. He ranked 3^rd in ERA (3.08), 4^th in fWAR (6.1), 4^th in xFIP (3.28), 5^th in K/9 (11.1), and 5^th in ground ball rate (48.2 %). He even ranked 2^nd in FIP (2.81) – ahead of Justin Verlander’s 3.27! Shocking, right? Well not really. Justin Verlander is still one of the best pitchers in the game, yes, and he still has elite stuff to prove it, but he had one major flaw: home runs. His 36 home runs allowed were the second-most in the American League this season, but he still had an ERA below 3. Why? Only one of his home runs allowed was with more than one baserunner. 28 of his 36 home runs allowed were solo shots, the result of allowing a .218 BABIP against him and stranding almost 90% of his baserunners. In the playoffs, we saw what happened when Justin Verlander did not effectively prevent baserunners and did not leave them hanging on the bases. In Game 2 of the ALCS against the Yankees, Verlander allowed a 2-run home run to Aaron Judge that would have won the game for the Yankees had Adam Ottavino not imploded. In Game 5 of the ALCS as well, Verlander allowed a 3-run home run to Aaron Hicks and that was all the Yankees would need to win the game. There’s no question that Verlander is very valuable to his team and he has the 6.4 fWAR to prove it, but his 2.58 ERA vs a 3.27 FIP suggests that his performance was in spite of being home-run prone and that his stats paint a better picture of his performance than what it probably should have been. Morton wasn’t as fortunate in keeping people off the bases, with a LOB% of 75.3% and a .298 BABIP, but he was the only one of the Cy Young contenders with a higher ERA than FIP, suggesting he was likely a bit unlucky throughout the season.

Cole, on the other hand, needs no introduction. His ERA (2.50), ERA+ (189), and FIP (2.64) all led the American League, and he had the most strikeouts (326) and highest K/9 (13.8) in all of baseball. There’s no question that Gerrit Cole was one of the best pitchers in baseball this season, but was it because of an easy schedule? Of course, the Astros didn’t choose their schedule, Gerrit Cole was a dominant pitcher during the season, and his stuff showed as much, but it has to be worth noting that only 12 of his 33 starts were against a team who finished the season with a record of .500 or better. It’s no wonder why his stat line looks so attractive—one-third of his starts were against the Angels, Rangers, and Mariners. Great job beating up the bottom-feeders of the American League, Gerrit. In all seriousness though, Cole mostly did well at preventing runs against the good teams with a 2.05 ERA, but really, only 12 starts? The best team Cole can say he faced in the regular season was the injury-plagued Yankees—in April. Morton, on the other hand, made 18 of his 33 starts against teams with a winning record, and while pitching through a tougher schedule successfully does not deem a pitcher “better”, it can’t be ignored that Morton had to go through much more adversity than Gerrit Cole to put up high-level numbers this past season. Not only did Cole face mostly soft opponents, but when the ball was in the air, like Verlander, Cole got into trouble. Cole finished the season with the 2^nd-highest HR/FB rate in the AL (16.9%), meaning that almost 17% of Cole’s fly balls went into the seats. In addition, Cole had a mere 40.3 ground-ball %, tied for the 8^th lowest in the AL. With that distribution, Cole is probably counting his blessings that his run prevention statistics weren’t worse as well. When hitters did manage to make contact against Cole, they got plenty of opportunities to do damage, but given their mostly lack of talent, there was barely any offense to be generated.

When determining who deserves the distinction of being the “best” pitcher in the league, should the title go to a pitcher who got lucky, one who coasted his way through the season, or the pitcher, who, despite not having the shiniest stat line, could be counted on in the biggest moments and would always come through when his team needed him? That was Charlie Morton. When the Rays needed a difference-maker in the rotation, Charlie Morton stepped up. When the rest of the Rays rotation was injured in August, it was Morton who provided length and stability every 5^th day in order to give his team’s bullpen a much-needed reprieve. In the shadow of Justin Verlander and Cole, Morton tossed the best season of his career and as a result of his contributions, the Rays, the team which spent the least amount of money on its roster, were able to fight their way into the playoffs.

AL Cy Young Race 2019: Justin Verlander

By: Alexander Eustace

With the World Series in full swing, and featuring several star-studded pitching matchups, it seems fitting to reflect on the league’s best pitchers throughout the regular season. The AL Cy Young race, in particular, features Astros teammates Justin Verlander and Gerrit Cole on top, with Rays right-hander Charlie Morton trailing right behind them. Given the dominance of both Verlander and Cole, it may not be fair to call either one the “unquestioned leader” of Houston’s staff. However, as evidenced by both traditional and modern statistics, Verlander has a stronger case to collect his 2nd career Cy Young Award and his first since 2011.