2020 NBA Mock Draft

By: Landon Jaeger

The rapid spread of the coronavirus has put the NBA on hold for now, but NBA teams must keep in mind the draft looming in the near future. Former NCAA and international NBA hopefuls continue their path, submitting their names to the 2020 draft. Controversial players such as James Wiseman, who had his season cut short after just 3 games (due to the NCAA ruling him ineligible), and Lamelo Ball, with his journey between American high school and international play, hope to hear their names called early on during draft night by NBA commissioner Adam Silver. Continue reading

Blake Snell 2018 vs 2019: Reasons Behind his Increased ERA

blake snell

By: Douglas Young

In 2018, Blake Snell put together a historic season. He was the CY Young winner where he posted a 1.89 ERA. Snell did not have the same success in 2019, succumbing to a 4.29 ERA. His FIP, xFIP, and SIERRA stats suggest he was a slightly worse pitcher between 2018 and 2019, however, they do not suggest a 2.40 difference in ERA. When equating the advanced stats to his ERA, they suggest Snell was lucky in 2018 and unlucky in 2019 (See figure 1). Undeniably, luck was a factor, however, it does not tell the whole story as evidenced by his poor pitching with runners in scoring position.

(Figure 1, FanGraphs)Screen Shot 2020-02-27 at 8.28.55 PM

In 2018, Snell was extremely tough to score on. He led the league by 2.7% in LOB% with a LOB% of 88%. The next year, his LOB% of 71.6 was around the league average – far from the MLB’s best. FIP, xFIP nor SIERRA weigh situations where pitchers have runners on base. This explains why Snell’s ERA changed so drastically leaving his advanced stats somewhat constant.

Industry standard does not believe in clutch players, and thinks that LOB% is a measure of luck. Blake Snell is the exception – his LOB% is not a result of luck. The difference in his walk rate between low-medium leverage situations and high leverage situations is statistically significant at the .025 level with a t-score of 2.16. Snell is walking more batters during the games most decisive moments, that compounds his problems. His declining pitching performance looks like a control problem as his HR rate also spikes during high leverage situations with a t-score of 1.55. While it is not statistically significant at the level .025 it should not be discounted completely. He is either missing the zone completely or missing his spots and giving up more homeruns. This is in stark contrast to his 2018 campaign. In 41 TBF in high leverage situations, he only gave up three walks and one homerun. A pitcher’s ability to manage high leverage situations are key for limiting runs. Snell did not manage high leverage situations well in 2019 and almost 20% of the runs he allowed were during these situations.

(Figure 2, FanGraphs)Screen Shot 2020-02-27 at 8.31.47 PM

From looking at just the advanced stats, many would believe Snell’s deteriorated ERA was from misfortune. Bad luck is undeniably true, however, there were additional factors at play that cannot be discounted. Snell’s 2.40 difference in ERA can be explained from his poor performance in high leverage situations, slightly worse performance overall (shown by his advanced stats), and a swing in luck. His poor performance in high leverage situations exemplifies one variable in a larger equation which should not be overlooked.

 

Why David Fizdale’s Firing was the Right Move

By: Landon Jaeger

With the recent dismissal of New York Knicks’ coach David Fizdale, there has been outrage among many NBA coaches and fans alike, calling for more blame on the front office of the Knicks rather than Fizdale. Respected coaches Steve Kerr and Gregg Popovich came to Fizdale’s defense stating, “If I had gone to New York that would have been me like three years ago” and, “He’s a fine, talented young coach… it’s ridiculous to think you’re gonna bring in a young guy and after being there a minute-and-a-half, you expect him to fix everything” respectively. Fizdale’s firing was called for after a 4-18 start, even worse than a 7-15 start through 22 games in the 2018-19 season. Despite spending upwards of 70 million and the acquisition of 3rd overall pick RJ Barrett during the 2019 offseason, the Knicks have seemed to get even worse, as their record indicates, and have lost their last two games by a combined 81 points (on the date of Fizdale’s dismissal). The Knicks’ organization has appointed Mike Miller as the interim coach (no, not that Mike Miller, yes the 2017-18 G League Coach of the Year Mike Miller), and seem to have no current direction. Amongst all the noise from the NBA community, I’m here to tell you why firing Fizdale, while not fixing the New York Knicks’ dysfunctional organization, was the right decision. Continue reading

NL MVP Race 2019: Cody Bellinger

By: Tim Sever

The Los Angeles Dodgers put together another astounding season in 2019, capturing their seventh straight National League West division title, while ultimately falling short in the playoffs. With a combination of young potential and veteran leadership, Los Angeles is one of the best-positioned teams in the Major Leagues to contend for titles in the future. No player better exemplifies this promising present and future than star outfielder Cody Bellinger. He has been nothing short of stellar thus far into his career, and if this year is any indication, he will be a premier player in this league for a long time. Continue reading

NL MVP Race 2019: Christian Yelich

By: Romeo Wada

Since being traded to the Milwaukee Brewers, Christian Yelich has emerged from being a consistent hitter to being one of baseball’s top stars.  Coming off a historical career year in 2018, Yelich picked up right where he left off, putting together another remarkable season. Despite a September 10th injury sidelining him for the end of the season, Yelich has still put together a strong case for another MVP award.

Continue reading

NL MVP Race 2019: Anthony Rendon

By: Kathleen Boyce

For the majority of the season, the NL MVP race has been between Christian Yelich and Cody Bellinger. On July 8th, MLB released a commercial called “Belli vs. Yeli: A game of M-V-P (Cody Bellinger vs. Christian Yelich!)” with the two players playing a game of PIG, but with letters M,V, and P. However, while the MLB made the NL MVP race out to be a two-horse race, another player put together an MVP caliber season and catapulted himself into the discussion.

Anthony Rendon used to fly under the radar when it came to the recognition of his talent, but his impressive statistics and World Series win has changed this and he is now regarded as one of the best hitters in baseball. He helped pull the Nationals out of a huge regular-season hole and through the playoffs with a dominant season at the plate and in the field, and he deserves to take home the NL MVP award. Continue reading

UVA Basketball Preview: Can History Help Predict How Good the Hoos Will Be In 2019?

By: Christian Rogers

Last year at this time, Wahoo basketball fans were nervously excited for the season, desperately hoping that this would finally be the year. The team was coming off the most devastating loss in program (and possibly NCAA) history, and many feared that another core group of studs would leave school empty-handed. This year, it’s a little different. In April, the Hoos became the first first-time champion since Florida in 2006, and they did so in a historic manner. Everyone knows how close the final three games of the tournament were, but just how crazy was the run to the championship? Per Kenpom’s minimum win probability data (i.e., the lowest chance of winning the team had at any point in the game) the Hoos had the most improbable tourney ending of the past ten years in terms of how the games played out:

Screen Shot 2019-11-06 at 9.15.58 AM.png Continue reading

AL Cy Young Race 2019: Charlie Morton

By: Charlie Silkin

Coming off a World Series title and 2 ALCS appearances with the Astros, Charlie Morton took his talents to Tropicana Field, signing a 2 yr./$30M deal with the Tampa Bay Rays during the 2019 offseason. Given the fact that the Rays were on a tight budget and had to compete with the Yankees and Red Sox in the division, they needed a difference-maker, and Morton was the pitcher of choice.

Besides the Rays’ unusual splurging, there were 2 other reasons why this move could be considered a surprise: First of all, Charlie Morton was 35 years old when he signed and with the recent exceptions of Justin Verlander and Max Scherzer, pitchers tend to be less effective as Father Time takes its hold. Secondly, prior to his two-year tenure with the Houston Astros, Charlie Morton had only one season (2013) where he was an above-average pitcher, and then again, he was barely above-average with a 109 ERA+ (he was only 9% better than the average pitcher).

Nevertheless, Morton did experience a resurgence when he signed with the Houston Astros prior to the 2017 season, which is no surprise considering Houston is one of the best teams at analytically improving starting pitchers. Of course, Tampa Bay is a heavily analytically-driven club as well, so one could argue that Morton was put in a good position to succeed despite leaving the Astros.

As for the question of “Why Morton?”, under-the-radar, Morton is actually one of the most clutch pitchers in baseball. Prior to the 2019 season, Morton was 2-0 in playoff elimination games, with wins in Game 7 of the 2017 ALCS and Game 7 of the 2017 World Series. His clutch ways would continue throughout the 2019 season, as he was 5th in the AL in Win-Probability Added (WPA) and 3rd in the AL in +WPA1; it’s no wonder he was selected to start the AL Wild Card game for the Rays (which he would also win). Needing someone to get them over the hump, the Rays chose Morton, and it’s safe to say that their investment paid off greatly, as he was one of the best and most valuable starting pitchers in all of MLB this past season and as a result, he should be considered as the top candidate for the AL Cy Young award this season.

Even after being effective for the Astros, Morton had a breakout year with the Rays. He ranked in the top 10 in the American League in most statistical categories among qualified starters. He ranked 3rd in ERA (3.08), 4th in fWAR (6.1), 4th in xFIP (3.28), 5th in K/9 (11.1), and 5th in ground ball rate (48.2 %). He even ranked 2nd in FIP (2.81) – ahead of Justin Verlander’s 3.27! Shocking, right? Well not really. Justin Verlander is still one of the best pitchers in the game, yes, and he still has elite stuff to prove it, but he had one major flaw: home runs. His 36 home runs allowed were the second-most in the American League this season, but he still had an ERA below 3. Why? Only one of his home runs allowed was with more than one baserunner. 28 of his 36 home runs allowed were solo shots, the result of allowing a .218 BABIP against him and stranding almost 90% of his baserunners. In the playoffs, we saw what happened when Justin Verlander did not effectively prevent baserunners and did not leave them hanging on the bases. In Game 2 of the ALCS against the Yankees, Verlander allowed a 2-run home run to Aaron Judge that would have won the game for the Yankees had Adam Ottavino not imploded. In Game 5 of the ALCS as well, Verlander allowed a 3-run home run to Aaron Hicks and that was all the Yankees would need to win the game. There’s no question that Verlander is very valuable to his team and he has the 6.4 fWAR to prove it, but his 2.58 ERA vs a 3.27 FIP suggests that his performance was in spite of being home-run prone and that his stats paint a better picture of his performance than what it probably should have been. Morton wasn’t as fortunate in keeping people off the bases, with a LOB% of 75.3% and a .298 BABIP, but he was the only one of the Cy Young contenders with a higher ERA than FIP, suggesting he was likely a bit unlucky throughout the season.

Cole, on the other hand, needs no introduction. His ERA (2.50), ERA+ (189), and FIP (2.64) all led the American League, and he had the most strikeouts (326) and highest K/9 (13.8) in all of baseball. There’s no question that Gerrit Cole was one of the best pitchers in baseball this season, but was it because of an easy schedule? Of course, the Astros didn’t choose their schedule, Gerrit Cole was a dominant pitcher during the season, and his stuff showed as much, but it has to be worth noting that only 12 of his 33 starts were against a team who finished the season with a record of .500 or better. It’s no wonder why his stat line looks so attractive—one-third of his starts were against the Angels, Rangers, and Mariners. Great job beating up the bottom-feeders of the American League, Gerrit. In all seriousness though, Cole mostly did well at preventing runs against the good teams with a 2.05 ERA, but really, only 12 starts? The best team Cole can say he faced in the regular season was the injury-plagued Yankees—in April. Morton, on the other hand, made 18 of his 33 starts against teams with a winning record, and while pitching through a tougher schedule successfully does not deem a pitcher “better”, it can’t be ignored that Morton had to go through much more adversity than Gerrit Cole to put up high-level numbers this past season. Not only did Cole face mostly soft opponents, but when the ball was in the air, like Verlander, Cole got into trouble. Cole finished the season with the 2nd-highest HR/FB rate in the AL (16.9%), meaning that almost 17% of Cole’s fly balls went into the seats. In addition, Cole had a mere 40.3 ground-ball %, tied for the 8th lowest in the AL. With that distribution, Cole is probably counting his blessings that his run prevention statistics weren’t worse as well. When hitters did manage to make contact against Cole, they got plenty of opportunities to do damage, but given their mostly lack of talent, there was barely any offense to be generated.

When determining who deserves the distinction of being the “best” pitcher in the league, should the title go to a pitcher who got lucky, one who coasted his way through the season, or the pitcher, who, despite not having the shiniest stat line, could be counted on in the biggest moments and would always come through when his team needed him? That was Charlie Morton. When the Rays needed a difference-maker in the rotation, Charlie Morton stepped up. When the rest of the Rays rotation was injured in August, it was Morton who provided length and stability every 5th day in order to give his team’s bullpen a much-needed reprieve. In the shadow of Justin Verlander and Cole, Morton tossed the best season of his career and as a result of his contributions, the Rays, the team which spent the least amount of money on its roster, were able to fight their way into the playoffs.

AL Cy Young Race 2019: Justin Verlander

By: Alexander Eustace

With the World Series in full swing, and featuring several star-studded pitching matchups, it seems fitting to reflect on the league’s best pitchers throughout the regular season. The AL Cy Young race, in particular, features Astros teammates Justin Verlander and Gerrit Cole on top, with Rays right-hander Charlie Morton trailing right behind them. Given the dominance of both Verlander and Cole, it may not be fair to call either one the “unquestioned leader” of Houston’s staff. However, as evidenced by both traditional and modern statistics, Verlander has a stronger case to collect his 2nd career Cy Young Award and his first since 2011. Continue reading